FIRST ALERT: Hurricane Watch issued for Central America, Bonnie expected to form Thursday
MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - Hurricane Watches are out for Nicaragua & Costa Rica as what will become Bonnie will bring potential Hurricane conditions by Friday evening.
While Bonnie still hasn’t officially formed, it’s starting to pull away from South America this morning. Rapid development is anticipated once this storm is able to get into the warm ocean waters and interact with less shear.
At 11 AM, the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 74.0 West. The system is moving toward the west near 20 mph, and a continued mostly westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday.
On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely ending within the warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and will likely continue along the coast of northeastern Colombia through sunrise.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Chance of Developments
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains poorly organized with an area of low pressure located over the western Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico later today. Some slow development is still possible, and it could still become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas later today. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. The chance of development is at 40% over the next two and five days.
2. A tropical wave located over the western tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only slight additional development of this system is anticipated while it moves west-northwestward for the next several days. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The chance of development has dropped to 10% over the next two and five days.
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