FIRST ALERT: Still waiting on Bonnie to officially form

Published: Jun. 29, 2022 at 4:12 AM EDT|Updated: Jun. 29, 2022 at 12:18 PM EDT
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MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - We’re still waiting on Tropical Storm Bonnie to officially form but why?

Land interaction with South America has made it difficult for Bonnie to complete a full center of circulation. Over the past day and a half, Hurricane Hunters have not found a complete center of circulation, meaning despite Tropical Storm winds, we have no Bonnie.

Bonnie will continue to interact with South America today but as Bonnie begins to pull away from land, there is no doubt that strengthening will begin to take place. Warm ocean waters and little wind shear only scream tropical development in the Caribbean by the end of the week.

The Latest

At 11 AM, the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 67.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 24 mph, and a fast westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday.

Here's a look at soon-to-be Bonnie.
Here's a look at soon-to-be Bonnie.(WMBF)

The system is expected to be near or over Nicaragua by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb.

Other Chances of Development

An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west - southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next day or two. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland tonight or Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. The chance of development remains at 40% over the next two and five days.

Here's a look at the chance of developments in the tropics.
Here's a look at the chance of developments in the tropics.(WMBF)

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave over the next couple of days, and some gradual development is possible later this week. The overall system is forecast to be near the Windward islands by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The chance of development over the next two days is at 10% but over the next five days it bumps up to 30%.

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