FIRST ALERT: Bonnie likely to develop tonight, increasing chances of development in the Gulf of Mexico
MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - Soon-to-be-Bonnie is still forecast to become the first hurricane of the season by the end of the week while chances of development increase across the Gulf of Mexico.
At 5:00 PM, the developing tropical storm was centered near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 59.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 24 mph . A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of Colombia on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the disturbance remains over water. It may become the first hurricane of the season by late Friday and Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday night and early Thursday.
CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT
1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. The chance of development is now up to 40%.
2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave over the next several days, and some gradual development is possible later this week while the overall system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. The chance of development remains at 20%.
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