FIRST ALERT: Hurricane Nicholas forms, watching several other areas in the Atlantic
MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - Hurricane Nicholas forms Monday night as it approaches landfall in Texas.
At 10:00pm, the center of Hurricane Nicholas was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 95.8 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a slower motion by late Tuesday and an even slower eastward motion on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas is expected to make landfall along the Texas coast in a few hours, move over extreme southeastern Texas on Tuesday and early Wednesday, and over southwestern Louisiana later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall, followed by weakening after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. A Weatherflow station at Matagorda Bay recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 76 mph gusting to 95 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb .
Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated of 18 to 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas like Houston, are possible across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and far southwestern Louisiana. Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts near 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. This system will likely remain weak and disorganized and far enough off shore to prevent any local impacts. The chance of development over the next 5 days is 50%.
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of development over the next 5 days is 80%.
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