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FIRST ALERT: Fred brings heavy rain inland, Henri forms, Grace continues to target southern Gulf of Mexico

Published: Aug. 17, 2021 at 5:05 AM EDT
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MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - Fred has weakened to a tropical depression this morning. Fred will continue to push to the north this morning, bringing heavy rainfall across Georgia, Tennessee, North & South Carolina.

Three systems continue
Three systems continue(WMBF)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED

At 5 AM, the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph, and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Fred is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight and merge with a frontal system on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb.

Tropical Depression Fred will bring impacts and heavy rain today
Tropical Depression Fred will bring impacts and heavy rain today(WMBF)

NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression later this morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb.

Fred will deliver heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States that could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. Rainfall totals could reach 6 inches.

The remnants of Fred will pass through the extreme western portions of North and South Carolina on Tuesday. A risk of flooding rain and isolated tornadoes will exist in the western Carolinas. Across our areas, increased tropical moisture will lead to better chances of showers and storms but only a very minimal risk of any severe weather. Some of the downpours could be locally heavy at times.

TROPICAL STORM GRACE

At 5 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 74.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph. A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.

Track of Fred, Grace and Henri.
Track of Fred, Grace and Henri.(WMBF)

TROPICAL STORM HENRI

At 5 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 63.7 West. Henri is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph. A turn toward the west is forecast by tonight, and a slightly faster westward motion should continue through early Thursday. A turn to the west-northwest or northwest is expected by late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Henri remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.

Henri will only bring an increased rip risk to our area later this week.

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