MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WMBF) - Three chances of development are going to be the story over the next week as we keep an eye on the busy tropics.
CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT
A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to interact with a tropical wave approaching from the east over the weekend, and it is unclear if the interaction will enhance or inhibit development of this system while it meanders over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through early next week. The chance of development is at 30% over the next five days.
A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is likely to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- northwestward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development. The chance of development is at 70% over the next five days.
Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa over the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form from the wave, and some development of this low will be possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. The chance of development is at 20% over the next five days.
At 11 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 15 mph, and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nana will move over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico today and tonight, then move over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Nana will likely become a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Omar is still a depression and continues to weaken with the 11 AM update. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mphwith higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Omar is expected to become a remnant low on Friday, or possibly sooner. The remnant low should dissipate on Saturday.