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FIRST ALERT: Colorado State researchers release updated forecast for remainder of hurricane season

Published: Aug. 5, 2020 at 1:27 PM EDT|Updated: Aug. 5, 2021 at 2:59 PM EDT
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MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - Researchers from Colorado State University issued an update to the 2021 hurricane season forecast.

Following the updated forecast released by NOAA on Wednesday, researchers from Colorado State University have also released an updated forecast for the remainder of the 2021 hurricane season.

In a press release issued today, the researchers said “we have decreased our forecast slightly but continue to call for an above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are now warmer than normal, while vertical wind shear over the past 30 days over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are slightly weaker than normal.”

The new forecast calls for a total of 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

Updated forecast.
Updated forecast.(WMBF)

The Atlantic has already had 5 named storms and 1 hurricane through August 4. We estimate that 2021 will have an additional 13 named storms , 7 hurricanes , and 4 major hurricanes. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 125 percent of the long-period full-season average.

Despite a slightly lower forecast for the number of named storms, the report went on to state “we continue to anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 125 percent of the long-period full-season average.”

For the Carolinas, the researchers state the risk of a named storm passing within 50 miles of the South Carolina Coast at 70% (average is 57%), the risk of a hurricane within 50 miles at 39% (average is 29%). The risk of a major hurricane passing within 50 miles is 11% (average is 8%).

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

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