FIRST ALERT: Falling temperatures and rain chances, rain may transition to snow Thursday night

Falling temperatures and rain chances, rain may transition to snow Thursday night

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WMBF) - Falling temperatures are expected throughout the day with our high temperature already past us. Highs were at midnight and in the lower 60s for both the Grand Strand and the Pee Dee. Add in the rain chances for today and it’s a downright nasty day for any plans for Wednesday.

Highs have already occurred with a high of 63 in Myrtle Beach and 62 in Florence.
Highs have already occurred with a high of 63 in Myrtle Beach and 62 in Florence. (Source: WMBF)

The cold front will slowly move southward through the Carolinas this afternoon, allowing the rain chances to become more scattered and allow for a few more breaks in the rain later tonight.

Rain chances may transition to snow in some areas Thursday night as the cold air rushes in.
Rain chances may transition to snow in some areas Thursday night as the cold air rushes in. (Source: WMBF)

By tomorrow, the front will be well off shore as an area of low pressure develops off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. Rain will begin to return back into the forecast and bring a 100% chance of showers to the region by the middle of the day tomorrow with heavier and steady rain by tomorrow afternoon.

The best chance for snow is still in eastern North Carolina. However, a few flakes are expected on the backside of the system in our northern counties.
The best chance for snow is still in eastern North Carolina. However, a few flakes are expected on the backside of the system in our northern counties. (Source: WMBF)

As the low pressure system gains strength, colder temperatures will begin to rush into the area on the backside of the storm. It's important to note that temperatures will already be cold so any additional drops will bring in even colder air. Highs tomorrow will reach the low-mid 40s and most of those temperatures are in the morning hours. So, as the cold air moves in, it will try to catch up to the precipitation, creating a mix and possibly some light snow on the backside of this system.

The confidence in the forecast remains low and all depends on the strentgh of the system, the track of the storm and the temperatures as the cold air surges in. A stronger storm would allow for the colder air to be pulled into the Carolinas quicker. A weaker storm or one closer to the coast would result in a delay in colder air.

Here's a look at the models for the snow chances Thursday night. Once again, accumulation is not expected.
Here's a look at the models for the snow chances Thursday night. Once again, accumulation is not expected. (Source: WMBF)

It's important to note that the models are remaining steady with previous thoughts at this time. It's also important to note that we cannot take models as a forecast. This is simply only to be used as guidance.

THURSDAY: Rain overspreads the area from the late morning through the afternoon and becomes steady by late in the day. Early morning temperatures in the middle to upper 40s will gradually fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Rain will continue as temperatures gradually fall into the middle and upper 30s. Areas near the NC border and west of Interstate 95 will likely see rain starting to mix with sleet and some wet snow. If the cold air arrives fast enough, then some wet snow or sleet may mix with the rain near the Grand Strand prior to sunrise.

FRIDAY MORNING: Moisture will rapidly exit the region near or before sunrise on Friday. A few flurries will be possible very early in the morning followed by clearing skies and gusty winds. Temperatures by daybreak will drop into the lower to middle 30s.

While flakes may fly across the area, accumulations are highly unlikely. The combination of warm ground temperatures, light snow over a short time frame, and above freezing temperatures will all limit the chance of any snow sticking. In addition, the above freezing temperatures will also prevent any slush or ice from developing on area roadways, and no travel issues are expected.

Here's a look at the most likely scenario for Thursday night.
Here's a look at the most likely scenario for Thursday night. (Source: WMBF)

If the snow develops sooner or is heavier than expected, then a slushy coating would have a chance to develop well inland and for areas near the North Carolina border, but that is not expected at this time.

The accumulation potential shows the highest chances in eastern North Carolina but some light snow in our North Carolina counties. Even with this, a warm and wet ground will make accumulations slim to none.
The accumulation potential shows the highest chances in eastern North Carolina but some light snow in our North Carolina counties. Even with this, a warm and wet ground will make accumulations slim to none. (Source: WMBF)

The most likely area for accumulating snow is across central and eastern sections of North Carolina. Place like Raleigh, Greenville, Fayetteville and Rocky Mount will have the best chance of some slushy accumulations late Thursday night.

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