FIRST ALERT: Cool and crisp day, weekend forecast features big changes

Cool and crisp day, weekend forecast features big changes

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - It’s a cool and crisp start to the day and those two words could be used to describe the next two days for Florence and Myrtle Beach. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 40s to lower 50s with mostly clear skies and a steady northwest wind that is making it feel like fall as you step out the door.

It's a cooler and crisp forecast for today and tomorrow.
It's a cooler and crisp forecast for today and tomorrow. (Source: WMBF)

Not much will change for this afternoon. It will be breezy, sunny and cool with afternoon highs in the upper 60s today. That same trend will continue for Friday as we end the work week on a positive note.

WEEKEND CHANGES: Watching the Gulf of Mexico

We are still fine tuning that forecast as we head into the weekend. This morning, we gave you the FIRST ALERT about the rain chances increasing for Saturday as this system continues to speed up. Right now, that disturbance is in the Atlantic and now has an 80% chance of development in the next two and five days.

The chance of development is now at 80% for the system in the Gulf of Mexico.
The chance of development is now at 80% for the system in the Gulf of Mexico. (Source: WMBF)

Even if that system does not form, tropical moisture will still stream into the region by the middle of the weekend. As mentioned above, early morning models have actually sped the timing of the rainfall up to Saturday and overnight into Sunday morning. Here’s a look at timing with this system. Remember, it’s important to know this will change.

The afternoon and evening hours look to be soggy now with the latest model runs on Saturday.
The afternoon and evening hours look to be soggy now with the latest model runs on Saturday. (Source: WMBF)
Early Sunday morning will be the main time we see rain for the second half of the weekend.
Early Sunday morning will be the main time we see rain for the second half of the weekend. (Source: WMBF)
Here's a look at the radar on Sunday morning. Notice how the end of the morning has the rain well to our northeast and out of the area.
Here's a look at the radar on Sunday morning. Notice how the end of the morning has the rain well to our northeast and out of the area. (Source: WMBF)

Rainfall will be potentially heavy at times through the afternoon. That means several inches of rain cannot be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall is looking likely for Saturday and into Saturday night. Timing is still not certain at this time. The system has sped up overnight.
Heavy rainfall is looking likely for Saturday and into Saturday night. Timing is still not certain at this time. The system has sped up overnight. (Source: WMBF)

The European model drops 1-2+'" of rain for the weekend. Where the low tracks will determine who receives the most rainfall for our area. Meanwhile, here’s a current look at that data. Remember, this will change as well.

The rain could easily reach 2" in spots but the track of the low will determine where the heavier amounts end up.
The rain could easily reach 2" in spots but the track of the low will determine where the heavier amounts end up. (Source: WMBF)

While the moisture will increase our rain chances, no strong winds or storm surge is expected, even if this system does develop into a tropical storm. What we can expect is heavy rainfall at times, especially overnight Saturday and into Sunday.

Cloudy skies and rain chances increase for Saturday now.
Cloudy skies and rain chances increase for Saturday now. (Source: WMBF)

The forecast right now calls for highs in the low-mid 70s for both Saturday and Sunday but any changes in the track or strength of this system will change those temperatures for the weekend.

This forecast is not set in stone by any means. If you have weekend plans, stay updated with us as we go throughout the rest of the week. We will be sure to let you know of all of the changes.

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