FIRST ALERT: Chances for development increasing as storm moves over Bahamas

FIRST ALERT: Chances for development increasing as storm moves over Bahamas
The chance of development over the next two days is 70%. The chances are also high for the next five days. (Source: WMBF)

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - We are watching two systems in the Atlantic that have increased their chances of development overnight and early this morning.

The chance of development over the next two days is 70%. The chances are also high for the next five days.
The chance of development over the next two days is 70%. The chances are also high for the next five days. (Source: WMBF)

AREA 1

Shower and thunderstorm activity over the central and southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters is gradually becoming better organized with decreasing surface pressure. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. The chance of development is 70% over the next two days and 80% over the next five days.

The Euro is further to the east and likes the idea of a low pressure system gaining strength toward the weekend.
The Euro is further to the east and likes the idea of a low pressure system gaining strength toward the weekend. (Source: WMBF)

Overnight models have shifted the track of this disturbance further to the east, especially the European model. That model now favors this system to hug the east coast of Florida and work north towards the Carolinas. It’s important to note that this is ONE run and one trend. As we gather more data, the track of this system will become more clear.

The GFS does not like the idea of a tropical storm forming over the weekend and keeps the disturbance more shower and thunderstorm based in the tropics.
The GFS does not like the idea of a tropical storm forming over the weekend and keeps the disturbance more shower and thunderstorm based in the tropics. (Source: WMBF)

The GFS still has a hard time forming any system from this disturbance. It will be important to watch the change over the next few model runs. If the GFS starts to show some strengthening, the track should become a little bit more concise as we head into the weekend. It’s important to note that we are still days out from this system and changes are anticipated.

It’s too early to tell if direct impacts to the Carolinas are expected. That is all dependent on the track of this storm, if it forms. As we get more model runs today, we should be able to fine tune the track of this forecast. If this system does form, it would be Tropical Storm Humberto.

AREA 2

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. The chance of development is 0% over the next two days. The chances increase to 40% over the next five days.

The second area to watch is out further in the Atlantic. Here's the 40% chance of development over the next five days.
The second area to watch is out further in the Atlantic. Here's the 40% chance of development over the next five days. (Source: WMBF)

Copyright 2019 WMBF. All rights reserved.