FIRST ALERT: Dorian and Erin likely to form over the next few days

Two tropical system likely to develop through early next week.

FIRST ALERT: Dorian and Erin likely to form over the next few days
Update slightly increases chances of formation in Central Atlantic

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - Hurricane season has quickly sprung to life with two system likely to develop through the next 5 days.

SYSTEM NEAR THE BAHAMAS - SOON TO BE DORIAN

In its latest update, the National Hurricane Center stated that "a broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the adjacent western Atlantic waters. The system has changed little in organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend.

The low is forecast to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary.

Forecast models for what will likely become Dorian over the next few days.
Forecast models for what will likely become Dorian over the next few days. (Source: WMBF)

The chance of development over the next two days remains at 70% and the risk over the next five days is 90%.

If it develops into a tropical storm, it will be given the name of ‘Dorian’.

The developing system is forecast to pass a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina Coastline. This will keep all of the impacts from wind and rain well offshore and out to sea. While periods of heavy rain are possible on Saturday, the rainfall will be from a cold front and not the tropical system. With a front pushing off shore and the developing tropical system in the Atlantic, gusty winds are likely to develop on Sunday with gusts of 20-25 mph at times. Rough surf and increased rip current risk are also possible.

Some models are hinting that developing system may become the season’s second hurricane by early next week as it passes well east of the Carolina coast and heads out into the open Atlantic.

The European forecast model indicates the developing system may be near Hurricane strength by Monday.
The European forecast model indicates the developing system may be near Hurricane strength by Monday. (Source: WMBF)

SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC - SOON TO BE ERIN

Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph. The chance of development is 70% over the next two days and 80% over the next 5 days. If it develops, it will be given the name ‘Erin’. Once it reaches the Caribbean later next week, the environment becomes less favorable.

Forecast models for the developing system in the central Atlantic that may become Erin by next week.
Forecast models for the developing system in the central Atlantic that may become Erin by next week. (Source: WMBF)

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