FIRST ALERT: Chances of tropical development increasing

Jamie's 11 p.m. Thursday Tropics Outlook

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - The chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm developing over the next several days has increased.

In its latest update, the National Hurricane Center stated that “satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the central Bahamas. This system continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles.”

A chance of development is looking more likely over the next five days.
A chance of development is looking more likely over the next five days. (Source: WMBF)

Atmospheric conditions appear to be conducive for additional slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the coast of Florida and then offshore of the southeast United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few days.

The chance of development over the next two days has increased to 30% and the risk over the next five days is up to 60%.

Models indicate the best chance of tropical development will likely be late in the weekend as the potential system passes east of the Carolina Coast.
Models indicate the best chance of tropical development will likely be late in the weekend as the potential system passes east of the Carolina Coast. (Source: WMBF)

The most likely area for development will likely be east of the Carolina Coastline by late in the weekend. Most forecast models suggest the development of the system into a tropical depression or tropical storm while it is well east of the Carolina coast Sunday and Monday.

With the potential system moving to the northeast, any impacts will remain well east and out to sea and away from the South Carolina Coast.

A few forecast models, including the European model, are suggesting the developing system may reach near hurricane strength while passing well east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

The European forecast model is the most aggressive in terms of tropical development. Even so, no impacts would be felt in the Carolinas.
The European forecast model is the most aggressive in terms of tropical development. Even so, no impacts would be felt in the Carolinas. (Source: WMBF)

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