First Alert: Chances for tropical development continue to increase

8 AM Tropical Update

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - The chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm developing over the next several days continues to increase.

In its latest update, the National Hurricane Center stated that “surface and radar data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is located just east of the upper Florida Keys and the southeastern coast of the Florida peninsula. This system is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends primarily northeast of the center over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The low is forecast to move near or over the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit development during that time".

There is now a 40% chance of development in the next two days and a 70% chance of development over the next five days. A tropical depression is likely by the end of the weekend.
There is now a 40% chance of development in the next two days and a 70% chance of development over the next five days. A tropical depression is likely by the end of the weekend. (Source: WMBF)

Atmospheric conditions continue to be conducive for additional slow development during the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or into early next week while the system moves along the coast of Florida and then offshore of the southeast United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas and the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few days.

Our rainfall will not come from the tropical system but from the cold front itself.
Our rainfall will not come from the tropical system but from the cold front itself. (Source: WMBF)

In the morning update, the chance of development over the next two days was upgraded to 40% and the risk over the next five days climbed to 70%. The latest model guidance indicates that the best chance of tropical development will likely be late into the weekend and into Monday as the system passes east of the Carolina coast. '

The strongest winds will be well off the coast but strong as we head into the end of the weekend and into next week.
The strongest winds will be well off the coast but strong as we head into the end of the weekend and into next week. (Source: WMBF)

With this system moving to the northeast, any impacts will remain well east and out to sea from the South Carolina coast.

Models continue to point at a hard turn to the northeast as this disturbance moves up the Florida coast. This means no threat to the Carolinas at this time.
Models continue to point at a hard turn to the northeast as this disturbance moves up the Florida coast. This means no threat to the Carolinas at this time. (Source: WMBF)

A few forecast models are still suggesting some rapid development as this system moves to our northeast. They have this system reaching near hurricane strength by the end of Sunday and into Monday.

We are watching another system in the Atlantic this morning.
We are watching another system in the Atlantic this morning. (Source: WMBF News)

Along with this tropical disturbance, there is a new tropical disturbance out further in the Atlantic that now has a small chance of development in the next two and five days. Showers and storms have increased since yesterday in association with this tropical wave located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. The chances for development are at 10% over the next two days and at 20% over the next five days.

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