MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - Researchers at Colorado State University have released their updated hurricane season forecast.
The updated forecast calls for 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This updated forecast remains unchanged from the last update issued in June.
An average hurricane season typically produces 12 named storms. Six of those typically become hurricanes and of those, three typically become major hurricanes, category 3 or higher.
The forecast from Colorado State is also similar to the outlook from NOAA that indicates nine to fifteen named storms, four to eight hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.
The latest outlook states that “we have maintained our forecast for a near-average 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic currently has near-average sea surface temperatures. We believe that the odds of a weak El Niño persisting through August-October have diminished slightly.”
The update went on to say “the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean remains near its long-term average. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
The 1992 and 1983 hurricane seasons are examples of why you need to be prepared regardless of the seasonal forecast.
In 1992, there were only six named storms and one subtropical storm. However, one of those named storms was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane.
In 1983, there were only four named storms, but one of them was Hurricane Alicia. The Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Galveston, Texas and caused widespread damage, loss of property and several deaths.
In stark contrast, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was very active. There were 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. Despite the large number of storms that year, there was not a single hurricane landfall and only one tropical storm made landfall in the U.S.