MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) - Models continue to struggle on a warm or cold forecast for Christmas day, but colder weather now looks to be the favored winner at this point.
The extended forecast for the Christmas holiday continues to look very uncertain, but it now looks like colder temperatures may win out. Large areas of very cold temperatures and areas of very warm temperatures are leading to tricky forecasts and wild swings continuing in the latest forecast models.
WHAT WE KNOW FOR SURE:
All available forecast models indicate a generally mild weather pattern across the Carolinas and much of the southern US late this week and into the weekend. Daytime temperatures will climb into the 60s and 70s for Friday through Christmas Eve.
Very cold air in Canada will gradually start to shift southward into the northern US over the next several days. While the most bitter cold weather will likely be focused across the middle part of the country, much cooler temperatures are now likely to filter into the Carolinas just in time for Christmas.
Both of the well knows forecast models (GFS and EURO) indicate colder temperatures pushing toward the Carolinas and the southeastern US by December 23rd and 24th.
The EURO forecast model which had been recently insistent on mild weather through Christmas Day, has now switched to a much cooler look with temperatures starting to drop by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
After showing some very wild swings in the temperature forecast the last several days, the GFS model has been gradually trending to a colder forecast for Christmas Day.
The consensus from both models is now that colder air will be able to move into the region for the Christmas holiday and beyond.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST:
We've had to make some dramatic changes to the official forecast for Christmas based on the latest model data.
Christmas Eve: Mild weather will remain in place on Christmas Eve with afternoon temperatures likely in the lower to middle 60s with rain likely at times. Depending on the speed of the approaching cold air, temperatures may slowly fall during the afternoon.
Christmas Day: Cloudy skies are likely for Christmas Day with showers possible at times. Temperatures will be dramatically cooler with readings in the upper 40s inland to near 50 across the Grand Strand.
While a clearer picture is of the holiday forecast is finally developing, more changes and fine tuning of the forecast are still likely.
For information on the temperature fluctuations before then, make sure to download the WMBF First Alert Weather app here: http://bit.ly/Zl2QUJ ?