FIRST ALERT: Weak tropical development possible off shore early - WMBFNews.com, Myrtle Beach/Florence SC, Weather

FIRST ALERT: Weak tropical development possible off shore early next week

Tropical development possible offshore Tropical development possible offshore
GFS Forecast model next Monday GFS Forecast model next Monday
European forecast model next Monday European forecast model next Monday
Minimal impacts expected Minimal impacts expected

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF)  A weak tropical system may develop off the Carolina coast early next week. 

A persistent area of disturbed weather near Florida may combine with a cold front stalling off the Carolina coast to produce a weak tropical system by early next week. 

The latest forecast models are suggesting a generally weak and disorganized tropical system may start to form off the Florida east coast as early as Sunday and then drift to the northeast.  Should the system reach tropical storm strength, it will be given the name Irma.

The latest American forecast model, or GFS, shows a weak tropical system well offshore of the North and South Carolina coast by late Monday and Tuesday with no impacts across our area. 

The European forecast model, or EURO,  is also showing the development of a weak tropical system.  The EURO is a bit closer to the coast and brings in the risk of a few spotty coastal showers by Monday and Tuesday. 

Should a weak tropical system develop, the combination of the system off shore and high pressure to the north will result in breezy conditions near the beaches from Sunday through Monday, but damaging winds are not expected.  Right now, based on the possibility of weak development, our forecast only calls for a 20% to 30% of a few showers by Monday and Tuesday. Breezy northeast winds are likely at times as well early in the week and there may be an increased risk of rip currents.  

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